Insights
CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Fifth Stage of Pocketbook Grief
Economic data has been resilient, but everyone seems unhappy—will the consumer cheer up in time to avoid triggering a recession?Podcast
Amid the Volatility: What Are Investors’ Best Options?
(22:19) What are investors Options? Sitting down with Derek Devens, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Neuberger Berman Options Group to discuss this fearless sector.Insights
The U.S. Election and Energy: More Than Meets the Eye
The presidential candidates have well-known policy profiles on energy, but how could they translate in the real world?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Why Japan Bounced Back
A huge market shock and a prime Minister heading for the exit—does any of what happened in August affect the long-term investment story for Japan?Insights
Basel III Endgame and the “Reg Cap” Opportunity
Tighter bank capital regulation looks set to make U.S. banks adopt a risk-transfer practice that has long been common in Europe—and attractive to investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Municipal Fixed Income: Shelter From the Storm?
Technical factors and market volatility are creating a value opportunity in the U.S. municipal market.CIO Weekly Perspectives
It’s Hard to Relax
It’s time for a well-deserved, late-summer breather, yet geopolitical tensions continue to mount.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Carried Away
The most important trigger for the recent equity sell-off wasn’t the U.S. jobs data, or the Fed, or even mega-cap tech earnings, but the Bank of Japan.Podcast
Elections, Equities and the Economy
(19:30) Does it matter if elections are close?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Innovation, Conflict and a Mysterious Disappearance
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading is a fascinating page-turner about one of the early 20th century’s most influential inventors.Insights
U.S. Election: The Policy Choice
Putting rhetoric and personality (mostly) aside, we explore key policy differences—and similarities—between the political combatants.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Change in Leadership?
As Biden withdraws, we are seeing an historic rotation into small-cap stocks and a growing opinion-polling lead for Donald Trump—are the two things related?Insights
U.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally, while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.Fixed Income Investment Outlook
Widening Differences, New Opportunities
Monetary changes and economic stresses are starting to drive diverging fundamentals across fixed income markets, reinforcing the value of security selection.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Policy and Politics
The first-quarter inflation bump is behind us, but we believe the risks of monetary policy errors and electoral surprises have risen.CIO Weekly Perspectives
High-Vol Politics, Low-Vol Markets
Are markets calm because of electoral unpredictability, rather than despite it?Video
Private Equity and the Polls
Have U.S. elections had any effect on private equity performance?CIO Weekly Perspectives
To Understand the Macro, Study the Micro
Right now, second-quarter earnings reports may be a better guide to the economic outlook than official statistics.Insights
Policy and Politics
The first-quarter inflation bump is behind us, but the risks of a monetary policy error and electoral shocks have risen.White Paper
Private Equity and the Polls
Have U.S. elections had any effect on private equity performance?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Preparing for Rising Volatility
The second half of 2024 could see the current, localized election-related volatility go global.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Un Pas à Droite?
Midway through a record-breaking year for elections, we have just been given another—and it is potentially among the most important.Insights
Are U.S. and European Bonds About to Break Ranks?
The two markets have marched in lockstep for several months, setting up the potential for attractive relative-value and dispersion trades.Insights
China Takes It Slow
The world may want higher growth, but Chinese policymakers are employing a balanced approach.Podcast
Consumer Dynamics Amid the Credit Crunch
(22:53) How are current consumers and companies alike navigating the current, seemingly uneasy, economic environment as it relates to credit markets?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Re-Rating Financials
A year after the mini-banking crisis, we see the normalizing interest rate and yield backdrop generating tailwinds behind the Financials sector.Podcast
The Wonders of Japan’s Economy
(19:03) As things are looking brighter for Japan’s economy, what opportunities could be in store?CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Structural Trends, Whoever Wins
Positioning for geopolitical shocks or election results is difficult, but we think the resulting structural trends are easier to identify and prepare for.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Do We Now Need to Worry About Stagflation?
We believe high nominal growth, peak rates and broadening earnings performance continue to underpin equity market performance.Insights
Can India Keep Up the Pace?
Perspectives on the India success story and where it can go from here.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Coming Wave of Homebuyers
How higher rates for longer could be positive for U.S. consumption.Insights
U.S. Election: Age, Cash and Conflict
A political observer gives Joe Biden the edge, but thinks plenty could happen before November.CIO Weekly Perspectives
An Ocean of Difference
‘Copy and paste’ your U.S. inflation outlook onto Europe and you may miss the opportunity in core European bonds.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Hot Commodities
We think the asset class stands to benefit from our base scenario, while having the potential to outperform and act as a hedge should tail risks be realized.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Breadth and Balance
The economic outlook may have improved, but we believe large parts of the credit and equity markets are fully valued.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Stay Focused on Earnings
Should a sticky inflation release cause investors to revise their outlook for equities?Equity Market Outlook
Extreme Distortions Everywhere: A Moment for Active Management
Powerful investment themes, such as AI, can capture the market’s collective imagination and we believe can create opportunities for tremendous wealth. Taken to an extreme, however, they can also trigger distortions across and within the markets.Podcast
Make Your Money Move
(16:10) With interest rates peaking, geopolitical uncertainty and the allure of cash savings diminishing, navigating investment opportunities can be a challenge. Is now the right time to make your money move?Fixed Income Investment Outlook
A Winding, Downward Path
While inflation remains a stubborn issue, the softening economy suggests that developed-market monetary easing could start sometime this year.Insights
Breadth and Balance
The economic outlook may have improved, but large parts of the credit and equity markets are fully valued.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Broaden Your Investment Horizons
It may be time to look beyond the U.S. for equity market performance, especially if early signs of a cyclical economic recovery persist.Insights
Japan Enters a New Era
We explore Japan’s revival, corporate reforms and where its equity opportunities may emerge next.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Time for the Yen to Blossom?
Strong forces still weigh on Japan’s currency, but its long, cold winter may be coming to an end.Article Reprint
Why This Market Theme is Ripe for Active Investing
Jonathan Bailey outlines his investment philosophy, shares insights from working with both governments and asset managers on sustainability, and explains why active investing is critical to achieving net-zero outcomes.Article Reprint
The Challenge of Active Engagement in a World of Passive Ownership
Jonathan Bailey shares the areas of focus driving his team’s research agenda.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Major Change in the Markets
Investors are now focused on growth more than inflation—what might that mean for portfolios?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Re-Emerging Markets
After two years of record-breaking outflows, is emerging markets debt due for a turnaround?CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Credit Opportunity in M&A
In an environment of tight spreads and low volatility, we believe the reemergence of mergers and acquisitions can be a source of idiosyncratic alpha in credit markets.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Earnings Remain Key in a Confusing Macro Picture
Macro uncertainty is high, but the earnings season has been solid—and not only in the U.S.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Inflation and Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumer sentiment has defied predictions of excess savings running dry, but do hotter inflation data pose a risk?Insights
2023 Proxy Season in Review
In a period of unique market and economic dynamics, Neuberger Berman continued our tradition of vocal engagement to encourage best practices from companies.Insights
The Importance of Monitoring Credit Spreads In Positioning Equity Portfolios
On February 2, 2024, the yield spread between the Baa corporate bond and the 10-year Treasury bond sat at 147 bps—the narrowest level since 2000.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The News and Our Views
January was packed with news—and much of it supported our views for the year ahead.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Year Ahead for the Major Industry Sectors, Part 2
The second of two Perspectives outlining some of the key themes we think will drive the major industry sectors in 2024.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Year Ahead for the Major Industry Sectors, Part 1
The first of two Perspectives outlining some of the key themes we think will drive the major industry sectors in 2024.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Destination, Not the Journey
Interest rate expectations are volatile right now, but focus on the fact that almost everyone agrees rates have peaked and their next move is down.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Flows and Fundamentals
With cash rates priced to decline substantially, we think it is time to deploy liquidity, locking in bond yields and seeking out value in the equity market.Insights
Building Momentum: 2024 Outlook for ESG Regulation
After a year of burgeoning regulatory development, we assess what may come nextCIO Weekly Perspectives
Poll Positioning
Voters representing around half of the world’s GDP go to the polls this year—what might that mean for the economy and investors?Insights
COP28: So Near and Yet So Far
Though not enough to limit warming to 1.5°C, and weaker than some had hoped, the outcomes of the climate conference are better than many had feared.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Some Credit for Active Management
Tempted by high yield? Here’s why we think investors may want to consider resisting the temptation to invest passively.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Investors Cannot Ignore the Debt-Sustainability Question
Despite a pullback in bond yields, clients at our Solving for 2024 event were still uncertain about how to invest in a world of runaway government debt.CIO Weekly Perspectives
COP28: Expect Disappointment and You'll Never Be Disappointed
Four things to look out for amid the pessimism at this year’s climate-change gathering.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Mortgage-Backed Moment
Securitized credit, and especially mortgage-backed securities, can be an attractive source of income while waiting for volatile bond markets to settle.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Return of Industrial Policy
As governments play a bigger role in the economy, we think businesses and investors will need to think more about inflation, location and taxation.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Is Too Much Riding on the Tech Titans?
U.S. tech is “Magnificent” in many ways, but it cannot lead the market forever—investors may want to seek performance elsewhere.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Global Challenges for the Next Generation
The Annual IMF Meetings in Marrakech raised an interesting question: Is the whole world a developing economy now—and can it pay for that development?Podcast
A Force to Be Reckoned With
(22:41) As we mark our 100th episode, we explore the disruptions facing our industry at large.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Geopolitical Shocks and Portfolio Construction
Investors should try to respond not to the events of the past week, but to the deeper global trends they reflect.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Higher for Longer, Longer the Stronger
“Savings depletion and weakness among small-cap and regional bank stocks suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as strong as it seems.”CIO Weekly Perspectives
Tighten Your Seatbelts
Shifting supply-and-demand dynamics appear to be driving bond markets more than fundamentals, which makes for a bumpy ride.White Paper
Japan: Unlocking Hidden Value Through Engagement
Reforms could continue to drive performance, particularly in a small to midcap space that is ripe for engagement-driven capital efficiency gains.Equity Market Outlook
A Change of Season
For all the exuberance over a potential soft landing, we believe a rising tide of data reveals an economy that is more likely tracing a scenic detour to recession.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Long the Strong
The prolonged adjustment to higher rates is just beginning, and we think it will likely be more painful for some than others.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Political Gridlock but Fiscal Largesse
How political dysfunction undermines debt sustainability and helps embed structurally higher inflation.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Sprint to Year-End
As the September starting gun sounds, here’s what we are looking out for on the track ahead.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Navigating by Flashes of Lightning
Central banks may be reluctant to hike further, but as long as they tie themselves to incoming data their hands may be forced.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Strike (Big) 3?
A potential U.S. auto strike has significant implications for the economy, earnings and inflation.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Late-Summer Debates
A few key issues could disrupt investors’ peace and quiet as fall approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Working the Margins
While this is no time to be making major calls on asset allocation, in our view, there are abundant opportunities for generating incremental returns.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Consumer and the Stock Market
As the “wealth effect” is driven less by house prices and more by investment markets, it may change our views on asset valuations and portfolio construction.CIO Weekly Perspectives
What if Everything’s Going to Be OK?
Falling inflation, recovering growth, relaxed central bankers—how one of the most widely forecast recessions in history failed to happen.Insights
Ten for 2023—Midyear Update
We check in on the key themes we anticipated from the economy and markets in 2023.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Engine Running, Shifting to Neutral
In the face of conflicting signals from our short- and medium-term outlooks, our Asset Allocation Committee is adopting more neutral views.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Taking Stock
As we reach the halfway point of an unexpected year for markets, what’s next for equities?Podcast
Emerging Opportunities in Emerging Markets Debt
(18:02) As a wave of sovereign debt default is on the rise, what’s next for Emerging Markets?CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Meaning Behind the Mean
The headline characteristics of today’s market obscure a wealth of opportunity, in both public and private markets.White Paper
Climate Innovation and the New Capex Cycle
The backdrop for investing in climate innovation is at a critical infection pointCIO Weekly Perspectives
The View From the Peak
Despite hawkish policymakers and very mixed economic data, the approaching plateau in rates brings more clarity and conviction to our fixed income views.Fixed Income Investment Outlook
Last Mile for Tightening
With tightening nearing an end but policy rates likely to remain elevated, we currently favor shorter durations, quality and attention to underwriting.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Don’t Give Up on China
The post-COVID reopening has disappointed, but has that disappointment and the prospect of new policy stimulus created a relative value opportunity?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Tactics and Strategy
We tend to think about diversifying across asset classes, sectors and regions, but diversifying across investment timeframes can add value, too.Insights
"Investing at a Crossroads" Revisited
Nine months ago, we set out a playbook for the transition to the new investing environment—here’s why it still applies as the rates cycle peaks and inflation eases.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Private Equity Valuations Withstand the Volatility of 2022
We see valuation data from more than 400 funds each quarter, and it suggests the recovery from a relatively shallow downturn may be underway for buyout funds.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Resolving the Puzzle
To make sense of today’s market conundrum, remember that things could have been worse than they are, and that investors are more defensive than they appear.Podcast
The Many Facets of Japanese Investing
(29:48) Given Japan’s unique macroeconomic backdrop, what can this market offer to its investors?CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Tale of Two Indices
How an “optical illusion” might be making the S&P 500 look more expensive, and better-performing, than it really is.CIO Weekly Perspectives
What ‘Data-Dependent’ Feels Like
As central banks become more “data-dependent,” will monetary policy become less predictable and markets potentially more volatile?CIO Weekly Perspectives
