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Global Macro Chart of the Month

October 2024
Now You See It, Now You Don’t…
We believe that one of the unique characteristics of 2024 is that, despite relatively low equity index volatility, we have witnessed some almost unprecedented relative position unwinds; in fact, they appear to be becoming the monthly norm. This month, we highlight the dramatic swing in relative performance of the S&P Index and the China CSI 300 Index.
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Global Macro Chart of the Month | October 2024
Source: Neuberger Berman, Bloomberg, as of September 2024
Highlights
  • We have commented through the year about the amount of speculative positioning in the markets, and what we see as investors’ extreme sensitivity to positioning and policy measures.
  • In July, the Russell 2000 erased its year-to-date underperformance to the Nasdaq in a week, on the back of a benign CPI number, despite market pundits still saying that they favored allocations to “quality” equities.
  • In August, we saw the Nikkei fall over 20% as the result of an unwind of cross-yen trades correlated to Japanese equities, and now…
  • ...we have seen China erase all its year-to-date underperformance to the U.S. in a week, on the back of stimulus measures whose effectiveness in generating earnings growth or multiple expansion has yet to be seen.
  • We emphasize that we do not believe that this is not a typical market environment and highlight that in our view investors need to be wary of positioning while bearing in mind just how much more important fiscal and other policy measures may be to asset prices relative to traditional economic fundamentals.
Previous Month - September 2024
The Employment ‘Mystery’
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