The upcoming election has implications that we believe could shape British politics and financial markets for years to come.

When Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood in the rain outside 10 Downing Street and announced the snap election to be held this July 4, few were under the illusion that any campaign would change the fortunes of the Conservative Party. Since the mini-budget debacle of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, a significant gap in polling has opened up between the Labour and Conservative parties. For this reason, we expect Labour to win a majority in Parliament and that Keir Starmer ...

Despite the solid performance of risky assets so far this year, we believe that investors should temper their expectations for U.S. dollar weakness.

Over the last two months of 2023, the U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, depreciated by 5%. This weakness was largely driven by the so-called Fed pivot, which pushed risky assets—normally funded through the dollar—to highs for the year. However, despite the solid performance of risky assets so far in 2024, we believe that investors should temper their expectations that the dollar will follow last year’s script.

First, the ...